Goals must be achievable. Success requires goals,  plans, appropriate resources, leadership, evaluation of results, and adjustments.  Experience as a legislator does not necessarily prepare someone for the most important and complex executive job on earth, but it should at least bring expertise and critical thinking in terms of goal setting and allocation of resources. Unfortunately for the American public and for the people of Ukraine, Joe Biden comes up short on the goal setting requirement. 

    This is not a discussion of executive competence - the botched Afghan exit might be placed at the feet of Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley (or not); the disaster at the southern border might be placed at the feet of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas (or not); the surge in crime might be placed at the feet of ideological district attorneys and mayors (or not); confusing direction on Covid measures might be placed at the feet of the Centers for Disease Control and Doctor Fauci (or not); supply chain failures might be placed at the feet of the globalized capitalist system (or not).  The central failure to be addressed here is the inability to set realistic, achievable goals. 

    Exhibit 1: Build Back Better. Forget the substance - whether it would have been good or disastrous to spend another $1.9 trillion for universal pre-kindergarten, free child care, expanded Medicare, electric vehicles, subsidized housing, clean energy, mass transit, and paid family leave while raising taxes on corporations and high income earners. It was clear for months that Joe Manchin, and to a lesser extent Kyrsten Sinema, were not going to provide the 5o votes needed to get Joe Biden into the transformational category of FDR's New Deal or LBJ's Great Society. Manchin was clear in defining his limits, but Biden was unable to ratchet down his goals. As a result he, thankfully, got nothing. 

    Exhibit 2: Energy. Biden shares John Kerry's view that we should not increase oil and gas production in North America, and has expressed that gas price increases will have the benefit of hastening a transition to green energy, reflecting a total disconnect from the fact that today's American energy supply is 35% oil; 34% natural gas; 9% nuclear; 3% wind; 3% hydro; 1% solar; and 5% "other renewable" - and that there is no realistic transition plan.  Never mind that Russia, China, India, and much of the rest of the world do not share the Western zeal for placing global warming considerations ahead of economic health.  The connection between this inability to set realistic goals and cost-driven inflation is inescapable - and will be a central cause of the Democrats' electoral defeat this November, and likely in 2024.  

    Exhibit 3: Ukraine. The most consequential failure of the Biden administration's inability to establish achievable goals is coming at the expense of the people of Ukraine. For months President Zelensky has indicated a willingness to accept the reality of ceding territory to Russia - perhaps only Crimea; perhaps only part of the Donbas. Biden made the early mistake of personalizing the war, calling Putin a war criminal and saying that he could not remain in power.  Subsequent discussions of driving Russia completely out of Ukraine set an unachievable goal, setting Ukraine up for tens of thousands of deaths and the world for famine without Ukrainian wheat and Russian fertilizer. 

    It doesn't have to be this way. Whatever his other faults, President Trump set aggressive goals and - despite multiple distractions - achieved many of them: The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement; the Abraham Accords between Israel and much of the Arab world; agreements with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador  to control the border; a trade agreement with China.  Even though the goal of disarmament was beyond reach, discussions with Kim Jong Un put a two year stop to nuclear and missile tests. Before Covid hit, real incomes for working class Americans were rising and the Federal Reserve was slowly raising interest rates. Goals were being met. 

    The dynamics in Washington will change after the November elections. Perhaps the administration will be pragmatic - as was Bill Clinton after the Democrats lost 54 House seats in the 1994 elections when he teamed with Republican House leader Newt Gingrich to produce balanced budgets.  Perhaps there can be some bipartisan, realistic goal setting relative to budgeting, energy, and the border.  Pessimists note that would require abandoning Chief of Staff Ron Klain, Domestic Policy Council Director (and Obama conduit) Susan Rice, Kerry, Mayorkas, and a number of other zealots who have driven the administration onto the rocks. But, perhaps a major course correction is itself an unrealistic goal for a president who will be 80 years old shortly after the mid-term elections.  

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bill bowen - 6/16/2022